Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3343 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 3343 PHX 05:20 → SMF 07:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 4757 PHX 22:45 → SMF 00:40 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3343 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:20	SMF 07:15	3%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 2885 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:45	SMF 09:45	7%	2%	0.5%	94%
AA 4099 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:15	SMF 09:21	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 781 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:35	SMF 11:30	12%	2%	0.5%	88%
AA 2630 American Flight history →	PHX 10:04	SMF 12:04	23%	5%	0.6%	76%
AA 2048 American Flight history →	PHX 20:48	SMF 22:42	32%	10%	0.7%	68%
WN 148 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 15:00	SMF 16:55	35%	9%	0.5%	50%
WN 4757 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:45	SMF 00:40	40%	12%	1.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON