Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3347 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 3347 PHX 07:00 → SNA 08:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 4906 PHX 18:00 → SNA 19:10 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3347 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:00	SNA 08:20	7%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 3348 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:10	SNA 09:30	12%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 2660 American Flight history →	PHX 07:37	SNA 08:59	14%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 3001 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:55	SNA 11:15	16%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2655 American Flight history →	PHX 10:15	SNA 11:43	20%	5%	0.6%	62%
AA 3171 American Flight history →	PHX 11:04	SNA 12:30	20%	5%	0.6%	68%
WN 375 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 12:40	SNA 13:55	23%	5%	0.6%	69%
F9 4957 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 12:20	SNA 13:42	24%	9%	0.9%	83%
AA 2637 American Flight history →	PHX 21:07	SNA 22:26	25%	5%	1.3%	82%
AA 2685 American Flight history →	PHX 17:21	SNA 18:40	27%	8%	0.8%	68%
AA 2659 American Flight history →	PHX 14:15	SNA 15:33	28%	8%	0.6%	73%
WN 4107 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 21:10	SNA 22:25	32%	6%	1.0%	76%
WN 4690 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 14:05	SNA 15:20	32%	7%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
WN 4510 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:45	SNA 18:00	38%	10%	0.7%	43%
WN 4906 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:00	SNA 19:10	39%	10%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON