Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3352 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 3352 PHX 05:00 → STL 09:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3353 PHX 16:40 → STL 21:35 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3352 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:00	STL 09:50	5%	1%	0.5%	93%
WN 1467 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:40	STL 13:40	12%	2%	0.5%	82%
AA 3179 American Flight history →	PHX 08:39	STL 13:53	15%	4%	0.6%	72%
WN 4801 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 13:35	STL 18:30	28%	6%	0.5%	75%
AA 890 American Flight history →	PHX 18:52	STL 23:58	29%	9%	0.6%	75%
WN 3354 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 20:55	STL 01:55	32%	9%	0.6%	32%
WN 3353 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:40	STL 21:35	37%	10%	0.5%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON