Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3514 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 10:17	STS 12:30	17%	6%	1.1%	38%
AA 6459 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 13:35	STS 15:42	22%	11%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PHX 07:00 → PDX 09:43AS 511	1h 02m Portland	PDX 10:45 → STS 12:26AS 2330 · flown by Horizon	5h 26m	91%	84%
Alaska Details →	PHX 17:48 → PDX 20:30AS 662	1h 15m Portland	PDX 21:45 → STS 23:30AS 3115 · flown by SkyWest	5h 42m	86%	74%
Southwest Details →	PHX 09:50 → BUR 11:15WN 1100	2h 35m Burbank	BUR 13:50 → STS 15:20WN 424	5h 30m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	PHX 14:37 → SEA 17:43AS 425	3h 01m Seattle	SEA 20:44 → STS 22:51AS 3410 · flown by SkyWest	8h 14m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	PHX 18:15 → SAN 19:25WN 3324	2h 20m San Diego	SAN 21:45 → STS 23:35WN 4191	5h 20m	95%	70%
Alaska Details →	PHX 06:02 → SEA 09:08AS 799	46m Seattle	SEA 09:54 → STS 11:58AS 1321	5h 56m	80%	65%
Southwest Details →	PHX 11:05 → LAS 12:15WN 2328	2h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 14:55 → STS 16:35WN 2407	5h 30m	96%	64%
Alaska Details →	PHX 13:05 → SAN 14:33AS 3028 · flown by SkyWest	2h 04m San Diego	SAN 16:37 → STS 18:23AS 2258 · flown by Horizon	5h 18m	100%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON