Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2772 at 08:44 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2772 PHX 08:44 → TPA 15:59 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 3355 PHX 13:35 → TPA 20:35 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2772 American Flight history →	PHX 08:44	TPA 15:59	17%	4%	17.1%	81%
AA 1837 American Flight history →	PHX 15:29	TPA 22:35	32%	9%	10.3%	64%
WN 3355 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 13:35	TPA 20:35	38%	10%	14.9%	49%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	PHX 11:00 → SAT 15:10WN 2986	1h 15m San Antonio	SAT 16:25 → TPA 20:00WN 4980	6h 00m	95%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON