Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3826 at 12:45 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 3826 PHX 12:45 → TUL 17:09 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest WN 3356 PHX 18:05 → TUL 22:25 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3826 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 12:45	TUL 17:09	18%	4%	0.6%	79%
AA 4037 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 19:04	TUL 23:30	27%	7%	0.7%	65%
WN 3356 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:05	TUL 22:25	43%	11%	0.5%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON