Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3831 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 3831 PHX 07:15 → TUS 08:07 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 3564 PHX 22:50 → TUS 23:45 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3831 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:15	TUS 08:07	12%	2%	0.6%	92%
MQ 4189 Envoy	PHX 12:15	TUS 13:05	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 6367 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:42	TUS 09:40	15%	6%	0.5%	83%
AA 6369 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:05	TUS 11:09	17%	8%	0.5%	79%
AA 6373 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 13:35	TUS 14:28	19%	9%	0.5%	85%
AA 4126 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 17:05	TUS 17:54	22%	5%	0.8%	88%worse than usual
WN 4870 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 13:00	TUS 13:50	23%	6%	0.5%	77%
AA 6368 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 15:56	TUS 16:50	25%	10%	0.6%	59%
AA 6370 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 19:07	TUS 20:01	27%	12%	0.8%	65%
AA 2635 American Flight history →	PHX 21:55	TUS 22:42	33%	13%	1.1%	55%
WN 3564 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:50	TUS 23:45	36%	14%	0.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON