Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3233 American Flight history →	PHX 08:49	XNA 13:32	15%	4%	0.6%	77%
AA 4086 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 15:49	XNA 20:30	18%	6%	0.7%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHX 00:36 → DFW 05:09AA 1818	3h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:04 → XNA 10:24AA 3838 · flown by Envoy	7h 48m	98%	88%
American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:36 → XNA 13:57AA 3847 · flown by Envoy	6h 47m	99%	86%
United Details →	PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318	3h 40m Houston	IAH 14:32 → XNA 16:15UA 4062 · flown by Mesa	8h 05m	100%	85%
American Details →	PHX 06:10 → DFW 10:42AA 1018	3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	7h 17m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	2h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 14:34 → XNA 16:27DL 4012 · flown by SkyWest	7h 42m	98%	83%
American Details →	PHX 06:20 → CLT 13:35AA 1274	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 16:19 → XNA 17:53AA 5443 · flown by PSA	9h 33m	99%	83%
American Details →	PHX 12:19 → DFW 16:55AA 1648	3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:57 → XNA 21:20AA 4101 · flown by Envoy	7h 01m	98%	82%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	58m Denver	DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest	4h 47m	96%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHX 10:15 → ORD 16:12AA 2252	47m Chicago	ORD 16:59 → XNA 19:00AA 3846 · flown by Envoy	6h 45m	69%	58%
American Details →	PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338	52m Chicago	ORD 19:00 → XNA 21:00AA 4105 · flown by Envoy	6h 45m	69%	58%
American Details →	PHX 07:15 → LAX 08:49AA 1668	47m Los Angeles	LAX 09:36 → XNA 15:06AA 6381 · flown by SkyWest	5h 51m	57%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON