Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5690 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 5690 PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 2186 PIT 20:38 → BOS 22:19 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5690 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:00	BOS 08:00	4%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 5678 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:59	BOS 12:48	9%	3%	0.7%	87%
B6 1786 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 07:00	BOS 08:39	11%	4%	0.9%	63%
B6 1286 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 09:00	BOS 10:39	11%	5%	0.9%	83%
DL 5731 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 14:25	BOS 16:20	15%	6%	0.8%	72%
DL 5787 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 19:10	BOS 21:03	16%	7%	0.8%	64%
B6 386 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 11:53	BOS 13:34	17%	6%	0.8%	74%
B6 2186 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 20:38	BOS 22:19	19%	11%	0.9%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON