Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 349 at 05:03 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–17%.

Safest bet that day AA 349 PIT 05:03 → CLT 06:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 5602 PIT 20:01 → CLT 21:50 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 349 American Flight history →	PIT 05:03	CLT 06:35	6%	2%	0.7%	96%
AA 2310 American Flight history →	PIT 10:20	CLT 11:55	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 384 American Flight history →	PIT 06:38	CLT 08:10	10%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 2295 American Flight history →	PIT 14:00	CLT 15:36	17%	5%	0.6%	68%
AA 2309 American Flight history →	PIT 15:36	CLT 17:15	17%	5%	0.6%	68%
AA 5602 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PIT 20:01	CLT 21:50	17%	8%	1.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON