Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via St Louis, leaving 20:15, is the safest bet: 46% chance of reaching Dallas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4465 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 06:05	DAL 07:55	4%	1%	0.6%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PIT 05:45 → BWI 06:55WN 4417	1h 20m Baltimore	BWI 08:15 → DAL 10:25WN 930	5h 40m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	PIT 06:45 → STL 07:30WN 3386	2h 15m St Louis	STL 09:45 → DAL 11:25WN 4196	5h 40m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	PIT 05:30 → DEN 06:55WN 3368	1h 50m Denver	DEN 08:45 → DAL 11:40WN 1360	7h 10m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	PIT 06:30 → BNA 07:05WN 1935	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → DAL 10:00WN 486	4h 30m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	6h 39m	99%	85%
Southwest Details →	PIT 08:45 → MDW 09:10WN 3378	3h 10m Chicago	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	6h 50m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PIT 10:16 → ATL 12:02DL 1380	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	5h 47m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	PIT 10:30 → BWI 11:40WN 4671	2h 35m Baltimore	BWI 14:15 → DAL 16:15WN 932	6h 45m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	PIT 20:15 → STL 21:00WN 3387	50m St Louis	STL 21:50 → DAL 23:30WN 3904	4h 15m	70%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON