Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4529 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 4529 PIT 06:15 → DCA 07:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1473 PIT 17:44 → DCA 18:59 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4529 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:15	DCA 07:34	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 5323 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PIT 09:24	DCA 10:42	12%	5%	1.2%	85%
AA 4757 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 13:01	DCA 14:19	15%	4%	0.6%	69%
AA 1473 American Flight history →	PIT 17:44	DCA 18:59	32%	10%	0.8%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON