Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3368 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 3368 PIT 05:30 → DEN 06:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4072 PIT 18:40 → DEN 20:05 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3368 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 05:30	DEN 06:55	5%	1%	0.5%	96%
UA 1765 United Flight history →	PIT 08:30	DEN 09:59	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 3369 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 10:55	DEN 12:15	12%	2%	0.5%	74%
UA 1092 United Flight history →	PIT 16:25	DEN 17:55	13%	4%	0.6%	74%
WN 4072 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 18:40	DEN 20:05	24%	6%	0.6%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON