Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3329 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 3329 PIT 06:01 → DFW 08:09 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2307 PIT 19:36 → DFW 21:43 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3329 American Flight history →	PIT 06:01	DFW 08:09	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 762 American Flight history →	PIT 07:01	DFW 09:09	10%	4%	0.7%	88%
AA 2290 American Flight history →	PIT 11:40	DFW 13:40	13%	4%	0.6%	85%
AA 2311 American Flight history →	PIT 15:11	DFW 17:19	16%	6%	0.6%	71%
AA 2307 American Flight history →	PIT 19:36	DFW 21:43	19%	7%	0.7%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON