Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3673 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 3673 PIT 07:25 → EWR 08:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 3565 PIT 19:30 → EWR 21:12 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3673 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 07:25	EWR 08:58	5%	1%	1.0%	97%
UA 3560 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 09:12	EWR 10:43	7%	2%	1.0%	93%
UA 3578 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 18:20	EWR 20:02	26%	5%	1.2%	69%
UA 3565 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 19:30	EWR 21:12	27%	5%	1.3%	68%
UA 4457 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 15:13	EWR 17:00	14%	11%	12.5%	86%
UA 4403 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 11:26	EWR 12:58	19%	10%	4.2%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON