Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3679 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–14%.

Safest bet that day UA 3679 PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 2607 PIT 15:06 → IAD 16:12 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3679 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:06	IAD 07:18	3%	2%	0.7%	97%
UA 3449 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 19:59	IAD 21:18	8%	3%	0.8%	77%
UA 2607 United Flight history →	PIT 15:06	IAD 16:12	14%	5%	0.6%	75%
UA 6184 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 10:30	IAD 11:42	6%	3%	1.4%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON