Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5677 PIT 07:20 → JFK 09:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 5823 PIT 11:58 → JFK 13:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5677 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 07:20	JFK 09:00	7%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 4587 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 08:51	JFK 10:30	7%	2%	0.8%	93%
B6 1198 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 06:10	JFK 07:41	8%	4%	0.9%	89%
AA 4568 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 12:13	JFK 13:55	11%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 5823 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 11:58	JFK 13:40	12%	3%	0.8%	84%
DL 5085 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 17:04	JFK 18:55	48%	34%	12.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON