tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:40, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4350 Southwest Flight history → PIT 07:15 LAS 08:50 6% 2% 0.5% 98%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PIT 06:45 → STL 07:30WN 3386 1h 45m St Louis STL 09:15 → LAS 10:40WN 2327 6h 55m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → PIT 05:30 → DEN 06:55WN 3368 1h 35m Denver DEN 08:30 → LAS 09:25WN 1024 6h 55m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 8h 15m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → PIT 05:45 → BWI 06:55WN 4417 2h 40m Baltimore BWI 09:35 → LAS 11:35WN 974 8h 50m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:40 → MSP 07:56DL 2848 1h 17m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 6h 51m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859 3h 37m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 9h 58m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:20 → JFK 09:00DL 5677 · flown by Republic 2h 30m New York JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807 9h 41m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PIT 07:00 → ORD 07:48UA 2218 1h 12m Chicago ORD 09:00 → LAS 11:08UA 723 7h 08m 96% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → PIT 20:15 → STL 21:00WN 3387 55m St Louis STL 21:55 → LAS 23:25WN 3936 6h 10m 74% 52%
SouthwestDetails → PIT 19:55 → HOU 21:55WN 4604 55m Houston HOU 22:50 → LAS 23:55WN 1058 7h 00m 71% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON