Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1349 United Flight history →	PIT 17:55	LAX 20:07	17%	7%	0.5%	85%
AA 2301 American Flight history →	PIT 18:28	LAX 20:36	24%	8%	0.7%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00DL 5690 · flown by Republic	2h 55m Boston	BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004	11h 03m	100%	88%
United Details →	PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic	1h 52m Dulles	IAD 09:10 → LAX 11:39UA 1868	8h 33m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 07m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	PIT 06:30 → BNA 07:05WN 1935	1h 10m Nashville	BNA 08:15 → LAX 10:30WN 991	7h 00m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:40 → MSP 07:56DL 2848	3h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	9h 43m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	PIT 10:16 → ATL 12:02DL 1380	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	9h 01m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	8h 00m	99%	85%
United Details →	PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859	1h 35m Houston	IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469	8h 15m	98%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	PIT 20:15 → MDW 20:45WN 4073	50m Chicago	MDW 21:35 → LAX 23:55WN 3364	6h 40m	64%	40%
Delta Details →	PIT 17:04 → JFK 18:56DL 5085 · flown by Endeavor	1h 24m New York	JFK 20:20 → LAX 23:38DL 752	9h 34m	61%	40%
Alaska Details →	PIT 18:10 → SEA 20:30AS 412	48m Seattle	SEA 21:18 → LAX 00:05 +1AS 1390	8h 55m	58%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON