Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5753 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 5753 PIT 06:05 → LGA 07:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 5843 PIT 18:40 → LGA 20:15 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5753 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:05	LGA 07:33	5%	2%	0.9%	96%
AA 4610 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:09	LGA 07:39	5%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 4420 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 09:40	LGA 11:11	11%	4%	0.9%	83%
DL 5796 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:30	LGA 11:56	12%	4%	0.8%	92%
DL 5794 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 08:30	LGA 10:00	13%	4%	0.9%	75%
DL 5694 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 13:00	LGA 14:36	17%	5%	0.9%	84%
AA 4655 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 16:54	LGA 18:29	22%	8%	1.0%	73%
AA 4479 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 15:35	LGA 17:08	23%	7%	1.0%	68%
DL 5715 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 15:35	LGA 17:06	23%	7%	1.0%	68%
DL 5843 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 18:40	LGA 20:15	27%	10%	1.1%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON