Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3374 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3374 PIT 05:10 → MCO 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3376 PIT 18:55 → MCO 21:15 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3374 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 05:10	MCO 07:30	3%	1%	10.0%	96%
WN 4726 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 08:00	MCO 10:15	8%	2%	11.7%	94%
WN 3375 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 10:00	MCO 12:20	9%	3%	15.5%	90%
WN 3377 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 21:55	MCO 00:20	21%	9%	15.5%	81%
WN 3439 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 16:45	MCO 19:05	28%	14%	15.7%	62%
F9 3819 Frontier Flight history →	PIT 19:13	MCO 21:42	29%	17%	17.2%	75%
WN 3376 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 18:55	MCO 21:15	30%	14%	15.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON