Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2313 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 41%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2313 American Flight history →	PIT 06:15	MIA 09:08	10%	4%	1.3%	93%
AA 1069 American Flight history →	PIT 18:54	MIA 21:44	41%	12%	1.6%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 12m	98%	86%
United Details →	PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic	1h 27m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	5h 29m	99%	85%
Southwest Details →	PIT 05:45 → BWI 06:55WN 4417	1h 25m Baltimore	BWI 08:20 → MIA 11:00WN 3278	5h 15m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:40 → MSP 07:56DL 2848	59m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → MIA 13:37DL 2129	6h 57m	93%	80%
American Details →	PIT 05:35 → PHL 06:51AA 5487 · flown by PSA	1h 24m Philadelphia	PHL 08:15 → MIA 11:12AA 2184	5h 37m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 57m	97%	77%
American Details →	PIT 05:03 → CLT 06:35AA 349	2h 50m Charlotte	CLT 09:25 → MIA 11:37AA 1436	6h 34m	96%	77%
American Details →	PIT 06:38 → CLT 08:10AA 384	2h 52m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 33m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PIT 16:20 → MSP 17:40DL 5249 · flown by Endeavor	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	7h 15m	74%	58%
American Details →	PIT 19:45 → PHL 21:09AA 6092 · flown by Piedmont	46m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936	5h 07m	62%	37%
Delta Details →	PIT 17:04 → JFK 18:56DL 5085 · flown by Endeavor	59m New York	JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428	6h 33m	51%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON