Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2848 PIT 06:40 → MSP 07:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 3709 PIT 19:20 → MSP 20:50 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2848 Delta Flight history →	PIT 06:40	MSP 07:56	7%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 845 Delta Flight history →	PIT 11:23	MSP 12:35	11%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 3709 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PIT 19:20	MSP 20:50	15%	6%	0.6%	79%
DL 5249 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 16:20	MSP 17:40	35%	19%	0.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON