Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4427 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4427 PIT 06:23 → ORD 07:21 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5588 PIT 19:40 → ORD 20:37 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4427 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:23	ORD 07:21	7%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 4625 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 08:02	ORD 09:00	8%	3%	0.7%	94%
UA 455 United Flight history →	PIT 10:54	ORD 11:42	9%	4%	0.8%	90%
AA 4478 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 11:37	ORD 12:29	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 3461 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 08:36	ORD 09:30	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 4480 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 09:55	ORD 10:42	9%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 2218 United Flight history →	PIT 07:00	ORD 07:48	11%	3%	1.0%	90%
UA 3662 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 16:10	ORD 17:01	16%	4%	0.7%	73%
UA 2180 United Flight history →	PIT 14:10	ORD 14:55	16%	6%	0.8%	75%
AA 2296 American Flight history →	PIT 20:49	ORD 21:50	21%	8%	1.1%	57%
UA 1494 United Flight history →	PIT 18:16	ORD 19:05	22%	7%	0.8%	64%
AA 555 American Flight history →	PIT 15:59	ORD 16:50	23%	8%	0.9%	63%
UA 5588 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PIT 19:40	ORD 20:37	23%	9%	1.1%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON