Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5487 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 5487 PIT 05:35 → PHL 06:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2312 PIT 17:05 → PHL 18:34 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5487 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PIT 05:35	PHL 06:51	9%	4%	1.0%	90%
AA 2335 American Flight history →	PIT 08:00	PHL 09:29	13%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 5239 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PIT 12:55	PHL 14:12	19%	8%	0.9%	50%
AA 2312 American Flight history →	PIT 17:05	PHL 18:34	26%	9%	0.7%	63%
AA 6092 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 19:45	PHL 21:09	25%	7%	14.3%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON