tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 34% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 653 American Flight history → PIT 07:46 PHX 09:07 14% 4% 0.6% 81%
WN 3383 Southwest Flight history → PIT 13:20 PHX 14:40 23% 4% 0.6% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PIT 05:30 → DEN 06:55WN 3368 1h 35m Denver DEN 08:30 → PHX 09:25WN 431 6h 55m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → PIT 06:30 → BNA 07:05WN 1935 1h 00m Nashville BNA 08:05 → PHX 09:40WN 3770 6h 10m 97% 88%
SouthwestDetails → PIT 06:05 → DAL 07:55WN 4465 2h 30m Dallas DAL 10:25 → PHX 10:55WN 1166 7h 50m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → PIT 08:51 → JFK 10:30AA 4587 · flown by Republic 1h 59m New York JFK 12:29 → PHX 14:43AA 2829 8h 52m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:40 → MSP 07:56DL 2848 1h 32m Minneapolis MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208 7h 03m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859 1h 22m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 7h 19m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 9h 18m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → PIT 07:25 → EWR 08:58UA 3673 · flown by Republic 2h 26m Newark EWR 11:24 → PHX 13:39UA 370 9h 14m 100% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PIT 16:20 → MSP 17:40DL 5249 · flown by Endeavor 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297 6h 46m 71% 56%
DeltaDetails → PIT 17:04 → JFK 18:56DL 5085 · flown by Endeavor 1h 59m New York JFK 20:55 → PHX 23:37DL 784 9h 33m 74% 49%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:50 → SFO 09:15UA 2177 50m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → PHX 12:14UA 500 8h 24m 34% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON