tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4531 American flown by Republic Flight history → PIT 08:00 RDU 09:26 6% 2% 0.8% 93%
AA 4493 American flown by Republic Flight history → PIT 17:00 RDU 18:30 12% 4% 0.7% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PIT 05:45 → BWI 06:55WN 4417 1h 15m Baltimore BWI 08:10 → RDU 09:30WN 1067 3h 45m 100% 93%
SouthwestDetails → PIT 06:45 → STL 07:30WN 3386 2h 25m St Louis STL 09:55 → RDU 12:45WN 297 6h 00m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → RDU 11:43DL 2052 5h 58m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:23 → ORD 07:21AA 4427 · flown by Republic 2h 09m Chicago ORD 09:30 → RDU 12:49AA 4756 · flown by Republic 6h 26m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → PIT 06:30 → BNA 07:05WN 1935 3h 05m Nashville BNA 10:10 → RDU 12:40WN 1795 6h 10m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → PIT 08:51 → JFK 10:30AA 4587 · flown by Republic 2h 29m New York JFK 12:59 → RDU 14:57AA 4658 · flown by Republic 6h 06m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 1h 03m Dulles IAD 08:21 → RDU 09:34UA 529 3h 28m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 5h 37m 98% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PIT 19:45 → PHL 21:09AA 6092 · flown by Piedmont 51m Philadelphia PHL 22:00 → RDU 23:34AA 3125 3h 49m 68% 46%
AmericanDetails → PIT 17:44 → DCA 18:59AA 1473 1h 01m Washington DCA 20:00 → RDU 21:12AA 2083 3h 28m 68% 41%
SouthwestDetails → PIT 18:55 → MCO 21:15WN 3376 50m Orlando MCO 22:05 → RDU 23:55WN 2690 5h 00m 59% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON