Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 649 at 13:10, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 649 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 13:10	RSW 15:40	30%	10%	9.8%	56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic	57m Dulles	IAD 08:15 → RSW 10:53UA 1406	4h 47m	96%	74%
Southwest Details →	PIT 06:45 → STL 07:30WN 3386	2h 25m St Louis	STL 09:55 → RSW 13:25WN 4940	6h 40m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:40 → MSP 07:56DL 2848	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400	6h 47m	95%	71%
United Details →	PIT 07:00 → ORD 07:48UA 2218	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 10:35 → RSW 14:44UA 1102	7h 44m	96%	70%
Southwest Details →	PIT 05:45 → BWI 06:55WN 4417	1h 25m Baltimore	BWI 08:20 → RSW 11:00WN 1082	5h 15m	100%	70%
Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	6h 26m	99%	67%
Delta Details →	PIT 10:25 → DTW 11:35DL 5607 · flown by Republic	2h 53m Detroit	DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225	6h 57m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	PIT 16:55 → ATL 18:48DL 1353	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217	7h 28m	100%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON