Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:40, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 78 Alaska Flight history →	PIT 07:30	SEA 09:49	14%	2%	0.8%	90%
AS 412 Alaska Flight history →	PIT 18:10	SEA 20:30	30%	8%	0.7%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic	1h 42m Dulles	IAD 09:00 → SEA 11:51UA 2101	8h 45m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 28m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:40 → MSP 07:56DL 2848	3h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	9h 20m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 45m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00DL 5690 · flown by Republic	3h 29m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50DL 332	11h 50m	100%	83%
United Details →	PIT 10:30 → IAD 11:42UA 6184 · flown by Mesa	1h 28m Dulles	IAD 13:10 → SEA 15:55UA 2241	8h 25m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:20 → JFK 09:00DL 5677 · flown by Republic	2h 30m New York	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	10h 30m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845	2h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 37m	98%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PIT 17:05 → PHL 18:34AA 2312	1h 01m Philadelphia	PHL 19:35 → SEA 22:56AA 3259	8h 51m	75%	54%
United Details →	PIT 17:23 → SFO 19:51UA 436	54m San Francisco	SFO 20:45 → SEA 23:10UA 1007	8h 47m	73%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON