Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2177 United Flight history →	PIT 06:50	SFO 09:15	13%	4%	0.6%	97%worse than usual
UA 436 United Flight history →	PIT 17:23	SFO 19:51	24%	9%	0.6%	47%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic	1h 17m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147	8h 13m	98%	84%
JetBlue Details →	PIT 06:10 → JFK 07:41B6 1198	2h 49m New York	JFK 10:30 → SFO 14:08B6 215	10h 58m	98%	82%
United Details →	PIT 10:30 → IAD 11:42UA 6184 · flown by Mesa	3h 09m Dulles	IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862	10h 08m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 35m	95%	81%
United Details →	PIT 17:02 → IAH 19:05UA 1444	2h 54m Houston	IAH 21:59 → SFO 00:05 +1UA 1609	10h 03m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:40 → MSP 07:56DL 2848	3h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	9h 29m	96%	80%
United Details →	PIT 19:59 → IAD 21:18UA 3449 · flown by Republic	1h 03m Dulles	IAD 22:21 → SFO 01:15 +1UA 367	8h 16m	92%	80%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:20 → JFK 09:00DL 5677 · flown by Republic	2h 15m New York	JFK 11:15 → SFO 14:33DL 363	10h 13m	98%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PIT 06:30 → DTW 07:44DL 5319 · flown by Endeavor	46m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → SFO 10:27DL 361	6h 57m	69%	53%
Delta Details →	PIT 16:20 → MSP 17:40DL 5249 · flown by Endeavor	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809	7h 37m	72%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON