Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3386 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3386 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 06:45	STL 07:30	3%	1%	0.5%	95%
WN 3387 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 20:15	STL 21:00	22%	6%	0.5%	56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PIT 05:45 → BWI 06:55WN 4417	2h 40m Baltimore	BWI 09:35 → STL 10:50WN 1110	6h 05m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	4h 58m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 12m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	PIT 06:05 → DAL 07:55WN 4465	1h 20m Dallas	DAL 09:15 → STL 11:00WN 1411	5h 55m	96%	86%
American Details →	PIT 05:35 → PHL 06:51AA 5487 · flown by PSA	2h 09m Philadelphia	PHL 09:00 → STL 10:35AA 2720	6h 00m	96%	86%
Southwest Details →	PIT 08:45 → MDW 09:10WN 3378	1h 50m Chicago	MDW 11:00 → STL 12:10WN 2901	4h 25m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:40 → MSP 07:56DL 2848	59m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → STL 10:28DL 3188	4h 48m	93%	85%
Delta Details →	PIT 10:16 → ATL 12:02DL 1380	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 14:09 → STL 14:48DL 2700	5h 32m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	PIT 20:15 → MDW 20:45WN 4073	50m Chicago	MDW 21:35 → STL 22:55WN 2905	3h 40m	64%	49%
American Details →	PIT 19:45 → PHL 21:09AA 6092 · flown by Piedmont	50m Philadelphia	PHL 21:59 → STL 23:32AA 1368	4h 47m	68%	48%
Frontier Details →	PIT 19:13 → MCO 21:42F9 3819	48m Orlando	MCO 22:30 → STL 23:59F9 2635	5h 46m	64%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON