tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4929 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4929 Southwest Flight history → PIT 05:55 TPA 08:15 4% 1% 16.6% 95%
WN 472 Southwest Flight history → PIT 21:00 TPA 23:25 28% 12% 10.2% 40%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PIT 06:45 → STL 07:30WN 3386 2h 35m St Louis STL 10:05 → TPA 13:25WN 3986 6h 40m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 1h 42m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 5h 26m 99% 75%
SouthwestDetails → PIT 05:45 → BWI 06:55WN 4417 1h 35m Baltimore BWI 08:30 → TPA 11:00WN 1120 5h 15m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227 4h 22m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:15 → DCA 07:34AA 4529 · flown by Republic 2h 41m Washington DCA 10:15 → TPA 12:40AA 2852 6h 25m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:40 → MSP 07:56DL 2848 2h 09m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → TPA 14:13DL 2696 7h 33m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → PIT 08:36 → ORD 09:30UA 3461 · flown by Republic 1h 49m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 6h 36m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:23 → ORD 07:21AA 4427 · flown by Republic 1h 44m Chicago ORD 09:05 → TPA 12:56AA 2920 6h 33m 99% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PIT 18:54 → MIA 21:44AA 1069 1h 29m Miami MIA 23:13 → TPA 00:19 +1AA 1714 5h 25m 73% 42%
DeltaDetails → PIT 17:04 → JFK 18:56DL 5085 · flown by Endeavor 59m New York JFK 19:55 → TPA 23:20DL 1636 6h 16m 51% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON