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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 279 at 17:15, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 279 Southwest Flight history → PNS 17:15 AUS 19:20 19% 7% 0.6% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PNS 07:50 → BNA 09:20WN 3391 2h 10m Nashville BNA 11:30 → AUS 13:40WN 450 5h 50m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886 5h 03m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 5h 25m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 5h 53m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → PNS 07:22 → DFW 09:35AA 5437 · flown by PSA 2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → AUS 13:25AA 4095 · flown by Envoy 6h 03m 97% 83%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 07:00 → DAL 08:45WN 3393 2h 20m Dallas DAL 11:05 → AUS 12:05WN 930 5h 05m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA 2h 05m Charlotte CLT 10:23 → AUS 12:15AA 1419 6h 53m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → PNS 09:27 → DFW 11:40AA 3748 · flown by Envoy 2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:55 → AUS 15:00AA 3726 · flown by Envoy 5h 33m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PNS 16:42 → CLT 19:40AA 5604 · flown by PSA 49m Charlotte CLT 20:29 → AUS 22:17AA 434 5h 35m 71% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON