Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3391 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3391 PNS 07:50 → BNA 09:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 2264 PNS 18:20 → BNA 19:45 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3391 Southwest Flight history →	PNS 07:50	BNA 09:20	3%	1%	0.5%	95%
WN 3392 Southwest Flight history →	PNS 11:05	BNA 12:35	8%	2%	0.5%	63%
WN 2264 Southwest Flight history →	PNS 18:20	BNA 19:45	22%	6%	0.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON