Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5548 at 05:22 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 5548 PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 5604 PNS 16:42 → CLT 19:40 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5548 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 05:22	CLT 08:18	7%	5%	1.5%	92%
AA 2103 American Flight history →	PNS 07:10	CLT 09:59	13%	4%	0.7%	80%
AA 5349 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 12:47	CLT 15:43	17%	6%	1.1%	85%
AA 2316 American Flight history →	PNS 10:49	CLT 13:33	18%	6%	0.7%	81%
AA 5604 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 16:42	CLT 19:40	22%	8%	1.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON