tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1001 at 15:30 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1001 United Flight history → PNS 15:30 DEN 18:05 14% 5% 0.6% 72%
WN 1514 Southwest Flight history → PNS 17:05 DEN 19:10 26% 6% 0.6% 31%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PNS 16:48 → IAH 18:43UA 4303 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 27m Houston IAH 22:10 → DEN 23:57UA 1066 8h 09m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823 3h 51m Houston IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168 8h 17m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995 6h 05m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 11:55 → DEN 13:00DL 706 7h 00m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957 6h 59m 99% 83%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 07:50 → BNA 09:20WN 3391 2h 20m Nashville BNA 11:40 → DEN 13:25WN 500 6h 35m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 07:00 → DAL 08:45WN 3393 1h 00m Dallas DAL 09:45 → DEN 10:45WN 1300 4h 45m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → PNS 14:09 → ORD 16:52UA 2005 3h 08m Chicago ORD 20:00 → DEN 22:01UA 767 8h 52m 96% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PNS 17:27 → DFW 19:37AA 5355 · flown by PSA 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:29 → DEN 21:32AA 577 5h 05m 73% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON