Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3748 at 09:27 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 3748 PNS 09:27 → DFW 11:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 2314 PNS 18:53 → DFW 21:08 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3748 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 09:27	DFW 11:40	9%	3%	0.7%	79%
AA 5437 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 07:22	DFW 09:35	14%	7%	1.5%	72%
AA 5353 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 13:55	DFW 16:04	17%	9%	1.4%	57%
AA 2950 American Flight history →	PNS 12:11	DFW 14:20	18%	8%	0.9%	66%
AA 5355 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 17:27	DFW 19:37	21%	11%	1.6%	73%
AA 2320 American Flight history →	PNS 15:34	DFW 17:48	23%	9%	0.9%	51%
AA 2314 American Flight history →	PNS 18:53	DFW 21:08	26%	9%	1.2%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON