Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1823 at 07:00, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1823 PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1823 United Flight history →	PNS 07:00	IAH 08:42	7%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 4258 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	PNS 11:35	IAH 13:30	9%	5%	0.6%	91%
UA 6287 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	PNS 09:00	IAH 10:46	12%	9%	0.0%	88%
UA 4303 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	PNS 16:48	IAH 18:43	15%	7%	1.2%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON