tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 5156 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record PNS 12:11 LGA 15:58 30% 14% 3.7% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 5h 42m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:30 → LGA 13:42DL 467 5h 42m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 5h 49m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460 5h 28m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA 1h 02m Charlotte CLT 09:20 → LGA 11:15AA 1150 4h 53m 93% 76%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 07:50 → BNA 09:20WN 3391 3h 15m Nashville BNA 12:35 → LGA 15:55WN 4731 7h 05m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 7h 30m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823 1h 05m Houston IAH 09:47 → LGA 14:29UA 678 6h 29m 94% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PNS 17:04 → MIA 19:52AA 3749 · flown by Envoy 48m Miami MIA 20:40 → LGA 23:44AA 1389 5h 40m 55% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON