tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4795 at 14:10, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4795 Southwest Flight history → PNS 14:10 MCI 16:15 11% 4% 0.6% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PNS 07:50 → BNA 09:20WN 3391 3h 10m Nashville BNA 12:30 → MCI 14:10WN 5063 6h 20m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → PNS 09:00 → IAH 10:46UA 6287 · flown by Mesa 3h 49m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 7h 47m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → MCI 11:16DL 2908 5h 16m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 6h 28m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 5h 13m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823 3h 23m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 7h 15m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 11:05 → BNA 12:35WN 3392 2h 25m Nashville BNA 15:00 → MCI 16:40WN 4625 5h 35m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA 1h 37m Charlotte CLT 09:55 → MCI 11:23AA 2052 6h 01m 95% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON