Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, F9 4662 at 16:11, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


F9 4662 Frontier Flight history →	PNS 16:11	MCO 18:50	28%	13%	17.1%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PNS 07:50 → BNA 09:20WN 3391	55m Nashville	BNA 10:15 → MCO 13:10WN 568	4h 20m	95%	71%
Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658	3h 57m	96%	71%
American Details →	PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA	1h 51m Charlotte	CLT 10:09 → MCO 11:57AA 2074	5h 35m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030	5h 00m	97%	69%
Southwest Details →	PNS 07:00 → DAL 08:45WN 3393	1h 15m Dallas	DAL 10:00 → MCO 13:40WN 1540	5h 40m	97%	68%
Southwest Details →	PNS 11:55 → STL 13:45WN 4979	2h 45m St Louis	STL 16:30 → MCO 20:10WN 5049	7h 15m	100%	67%
American Details →	PNS 06:00 → DCA 09:24AA 5424 · flown by PSA	2h 01m Washington	DCA 11:25 → MCO 13:51AA 2062	6h 51m	94%	65%
American Details →	PNS 07:10 → CLT 09:59AA 2103	3h 07m Charlotte	CLT 13:06 → MCO 14:55AA 3271	6h 45m	99%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PNS 17:04 → MIA 19:52AA 3749 · flown by Envoy	58m Miami	MIA 20:50 → MCO 22:08AA 1700	4h 04m	65%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON