Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2866 at 10:40, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2866 Southwest Flight history →	PNS 10:40	MDW 12:55	7%	2%	0.6%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PNS 07:50 → BNA 09:20WN 3391	1h 25m Nashville	BNA 10:45 → MDW 12:20WN 575	4h 30m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	4h 56m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	PNS 07:00 → DAL 08:45WN 3393	1h 20m Dallas	DAL 10:05 → MDW 12:20WN 1357	5h 20m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	54m Atlanta	ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063	4h 05m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 53m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	PNS 11:05 → BNA 12:35WN 3392	3h 40m Nashville	BNA 16:15 → MDW 17:50WN 2241	6h 45m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	PNS 16:18 → ATL 18:35DL 1013	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 57m	96%	77%
Southwest Details →	PNS 11:55 → STL 13:45WN 4979	1h 50m St Louis	STL 15:35 → MDW 16:40WN 556	4h 45m	95%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON