tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2005 United Flight history → PNS 14:09 ORD 16:52 14% 5% 0.6% 71%
AA 4023 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PNS 15:15 ORD 18:02 20% 5% 1.0% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823 3h 13m Houston IAH 11:55 → ORD 14:51UA 2827 7h 51m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA 2h 43m Charlotte CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908 6h 57m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → PNS 09:00 → IAH 10:46UA 6287 · flown by Mesa 2h 55m Houston IAH 13:41 → ORD 16:39UA 2458 7h 39m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → PNS 16:48 → IAH 18:43UA 4303 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 25m Houston IAH 22:08 → ORD 00:45 +1UA 1752 7h 57m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → PNS 15:47 → DCA 19:15AA 3742 · flown by Envoy 2h 55m Washington DCA 22:10 → ORD 23:30AA 4419 · flown by Republic 7h 43m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → PNS 07:10 → CLT 09:59AA 2103 3h 06m Charlotte CLT 13:05 → ORD 14:20AA 836 7h 10m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894 6h 34m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → PNS 06:00 → DCA 09:24AA 5424 · flown by PSA 2h 11m Washington DCA 11:35 → ORD 12:53AA 489 6h 53m 94% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PNS 16:42 → CLT 19:40AA 5604 · flown by PSA 47m Charlotte CLT 20:27 → ORD 22:00AA 627 5h 18m 69% 53%
DeltaDetails → PNS 12:11 → LGA 15:58DL 5156 · flown by Endeavor 1h 02m New York LGA 17:00 → ORD 19:10DL 2503 6h 59m 71% 51%
AmericanDetails → PNS 17:04 → MIA 19:52AA 3749 · flown by Envoy 1h 02m Miami MIA 20:54 → ORD 23:30AA 1881 6h 26m 67% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON