Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5469 at 11:23, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5469 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 11:23	PHL 14:56	18%	8%	0.9%	55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 24m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	7h 02m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	PNS 07:50 → BNA 09:20WN 3391	55m Nashville	BNA 10:15 → PHL 13:20WN 623	4h 30m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	7h 03m	99%	81%
American Details →	PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA	2h 42m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498	6h 21m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 15:05 → PHL 17:12DL 1169	6h 50m	99%	80%
American Details →	PNS 07:10 → CLT 09:59AA 2103	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	6h 40m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	PNS 18:08 → ATL 20:35DL 2211	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	5h 51m	97%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PNS 15:34 → DFW 17:48AA 2320	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:35 → PHL 22:57AA 3242	6h 23m	73%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON