tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4979 at 11:55, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4979 Southwest Flight history → PNS 11:55 STL 13:45 11% 2% 0.5% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 5h 17m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 14:09 → STL 14:48DL 2700 6h 47m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 49m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 3h 43m 93% 84%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 07:50 → BNA 09:20WN 3391 3h 45m Nashville BNA 13:05 → STL 14:20WN 1371 6h 30m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → STL 11:55AA 2717 6h 33m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823 3h 18m Houston IAH 12:00 → STL 14:16UA 5397 · flown by SkyWest 7h 16m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → PNS 18:08 → ATL 20:35DL 2211 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 5h 45m 98% 81%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 10:40 → MDW 12:55WN 2866 1h 50m Chicago MDW 14:45 → STL 15:55WN 2903 5h 15m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PNS 18:53 → DFW 21:08AA 2314 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:12 → STL 00:04 +1AA 3049 5h 11m 75% 52%
AmericanDetails → PNS 17:04 → MIA 19:52AA 3749 · flown by Envoy 1h 02m Miami MIA 20:54 → STL 22:54AA 1594 5h 50m 67% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON