tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3304 at 07:02, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3304 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → PSC 07:02 LAX 09:42 11% 7% 0.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PSC 05:14 → DEN 08:36UA 1049 3h 09m Denver DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013 8h 03m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 6h 12m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → PSC 07:05 → MSP 12:01DL 2622 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 13:02 → LAX 14:54DL 1651 7h 49m 93% 82%
DeltaDetails → PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest 3h 29m Seattle SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 7h 30m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → PSC 10:00 → SLC 12:42DL 3694 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → LAX 16:36DL 841 6h 36m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → PSC 05:15 → PHX 08:00AA 6360 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Phoenix PHX 10:36 → LAX 12:06AA 2869 6h 51m 94% 78%
UnitedDetails → PSC 12:08 → DEN 15:42UA 4721 · flown by SkyWest 2h 23m Denver DEN 18:05 → LAX 19:40UA 2240 7h 32m 97% 78%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 06:15 → SEA 07:20AS 2165 · flown by Horizon 2h 43m Seattle SEA 10:03 → LAX 12:56AS 1367 6h 41m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PSC 10:33 → SEA 11:38AS 2171 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m Seattle SEA 12:38 → LAX 15:25AS 502 4h 52m 67% 54%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 15:59 → PDX 16:50AS 2471 · flown by Horizon 47m Portland PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278 4h 10m 44% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON