Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3109 at 05:23, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3109 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 05:23	PDX 06:18	8%	4%	0.6%	98%
AS 2471 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PSC 15:59	PDX 16:50	22%	6%	1.9%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645	2h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	5h 55m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	2h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	6h 23m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	PSC 07:05 → SEA 08:10AS 2418 · flown by Horizon	2h 04m Seattle	SEA 10:14 → PDX 11:21AS 3090 · flown by SkyWest	4h 16m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	PSC 10:00 → SLC 12:42DL 3694 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244	6h 09m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Seattle	SEA 09:30 → PDX 10:35DL 3818 · flown by SkyWest	5h 10m	97%	80%
Alaska Details →	PSC 06:15 → SEA 07:20AS 2165 · flown by Horizon	1h 25m Seattle	SEA 08:45 → PDX 09:49AS 3132 · flown by SkyWest	3h 34m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	PSC 07:02 → LAX 09:42AS 3304 · flown by SkyWest	1h 41m Los Angeles	LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44AS 1355	6h 42m	97%	79%
Alaska Details →	PSC 10:33 → SEA 11:38AS 2171 · flown by Horizon	2h 07m Seattle	SEA 13:45 → PDX 14:48AS 3204 · flown by SkyWest	4h 15m	99%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON