Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 6360 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6360 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 05:15	PHX 08:00	8%	5%	0.5%	95%
AA 6220 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 15:24	PHX 18:09	23%	9%	0.5%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645	2h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	5h 57m	98%	83%
United Details →	PSC 05:14 → DEN 08:36UA 1049	2h 49m Denver	DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686	7h 11m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest	1h 49m Seattle	SEA 08:25 → PHX 11:20DL 2419	5h 55m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496	6h 10m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	PSC 10:00 → SLC 12:42DL 3694 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:20 → PHX 16:04DL 1738	6h 04m	97%	80%
United Details →	PSC 13:35 → SFO 15:44UA 5578 · flown by SkyWest	3h 41m San Francisco	SFO 19:25 → PHX 21:39UA 2347	8h 04m	97%	76%
United Details →	PSC 12:08 → DEN 15:42UA 4721 · flown by SkyWest	3h 50m Denver	DEN 19:32 → PHX 20:32UA 1729	8h 24m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	PSC 15:36 → SEA 16:48DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → PHX 23:33DL 2447	7h 57m	100%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PSC 06:50 → SFO 08:59UA 6046 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m San Francisco	SFO 10:05 → PHX 12:14UA 500	5h 24m	72%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON