Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 29–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 6046 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 06:50	SFO 08:59	29%	13%	0.6%	14%
UA 5578 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 13:35	SFO 15:44	36%	19%	0.6%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	2h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091	6h 31m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645	2h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	5h 48m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	PSC 10:00 → SLC 12:42DL 3694 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	6h 12m	97%	70%
Alaska Details →	PSC 05:23 → PDX 06:18AS 3109 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Portland	PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16AS 526	3h 53m	93%	68%
Delta Details →	PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Seattle	SEA 09:45 → SFO 12:04DL 1412	6h 39m	97%	67%
Alaska Details →	PSC 12:56 → SEA 14:02AS 2306 · flown by Horizon	2h 34m Seattle	SEA 16:36 → SFO 18:48AS 1385	5h 52m	98%	67%
United Details →	PSC 05:14 → DEN 08:36UA 1049	1h 07m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 11m	95%	67%
Alaska Details →	PSC 07:05 → SEA 08:10AS 2418 · flown by Horizon	3h 32m Seattle	SEA 11:42 → SFO 14:04AS 655	6h 59m	100%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PSC 15:59 → PDX 16:50AS 2471 · flown by Horizon	46m Portland	PDX 17:36 → SFO 19:30AS 504	3h 31m	40%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON