tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2425 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2425 American Flight history → PSP 06:01 DFW 11:02 7% 4% 0.9% 93%
AA 2334 American Flight history → PSP 12:43 DFW 17:50 19% 8% 0.8% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Palm Springs). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest 56m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800 5h 24m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → PSP 05:30 → DEN 08:52UA 5411 · flown by SkyWest 48m Denver DEN 09:40 → DFW 12:48UA 355 5h 18m 90% 81%
UnitedDetails → PSP 14:37 → SFO 16:18UA 5946 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m San Francisco SFO 18:50 → DFW 00:37 +1UA 2478 8h 00m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → PSP 06:32 → PHX 07:52AA 6406 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Phoenix PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284 6h 38m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:30 → DEN 16:43UA 1843 2h 10m Denver DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565 6h 29m 95% 76%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:16 → PDX 09:48AS 3370 · flown by SkyWest 57m Portland PDX 10:45 → DFW 16:42AS 392 7h 26m 91% 76%
DeltaDetails → PSP 12:23 → SLC 15:11DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 2h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796 7h 00m 95% 69%
AmericanDetails → PSP 16:51 → PHX 18:05AA 2929 2h 16m Phoenix PHX 20:21 → DFW 00:48 +1AA 2603 5h 57m 97% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PSP 12:55 → PHX 14:09AA 2330 1h 06m Phoenix PHX 15:15 → DFW 19:53AA 2113 4h 58m 73% 52%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 14:10 → SEA 17:00AS 582 56m Seattle SEA 17:56 → DFW 23:59AS 424 7h 49m 71% 49%
AmericanDetails → PSP 16:51 → PHX 18:05AA 2929 55m Phoenix PHX 19:00 → DFW 23:25AA 633 4h 34m 55% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON